Guru.Asymmetry
Rule numero uno. always pumps.

It is always when people least expect it.

The doubt and fear returns every cycle as it underperforms for the first legs [observe sentiment in late 2020].

Is this a guarantee - of course not. However, with the data available, the logical conclusion is that "this time is not different" until exo/endogenous factors prove otherwise.

With ETF flows now, all it takes is some positive mainstream publicity and we will have fireworks.

Tick. Tock.

Guru.Asymmetry


Send it.

$SEI

Been in the trenches stacking NFTs and shitcoins here for a year now.

Think this surprises many over the next 6 months.

$8-10 is destined.

Think early $SOL vibes.

No FTX overhang, relentless builders, great community, no chain downtime, fast and cheap txs, strong branding. -

Guru.Asymmetry
Team is genius for this - the timing of the tweet is literally perfect.

Huge breakout of a year long range and an announcement of a community-driven burn event.

S tier.

The BONK DAO BURNmas SUPER thread

The Mission: Burn 1 Trillion $BONK by Christmas

The campaign features BONK burns based on specific engagement criteria.

Here's how YOU can help The Dog in what will be the largest on-chain community driven burn event in the history of Solana👇 -

Guru.Asymmetry
Narrator: It was finally time.

$BTC

Such a tease.

Got the retest and progressive higher lows on the LTFs followed.

New week.

Is it finally time?

1D and 4H attached. -

Guru.Asymmetry
Wen Altszn?

An explosive phase for alts may be near, but first, BTC must dominate.

As approaches and breaches its historical cycle highs, a complex and familiar dynamic emerges: a pronounced ascent in BTC Dominance (BTC.D). This isn’t simply a mechanical shift; it’s a confluence of behavioral dynamics and liquidity migration as market participants chase gains, driven by FOMO and BTC’s risk-off allure.

This cyclical surge in dominance becomes self-reinforcing—a reflexive “liquidity flywheel” effect. Sidelined capital converges on BTC, intensifying its dominance and creating a feedback loop that only further amplifies BTC.D as inflows accelerate.

During this phase, altcoins typically undergo consolidation or correction, stepping aside as takes centre stage.

This isn’t a setback; it’s the groundwork for an exponential altseason—the kind whispered across generations, debated by historians, and retold around campfires.

Why altszn?

When gains solidify, investors are emboldened to venture further along the risk curve. With growing confidence, they pivot from toward beta assets and small-cap tokens, assets that offer magnified volatility and potential for outsized returns.

This behaviour initiates a cascading outflow from to smaller, higher-risk projects, creating the possibility of exponential gains for those strategically positioned ahead of the flow.

How to altszn?

Annotated charts trace this cycle, marking key pivot points where BTC.D retraces and capital rotates into (my preferred low-cap alt proxy). Note the inverse correlation: when BTC.D dips, alts surge.

The coming months could lead to a sweep of BTC.D to 63.69% or even 71.62%, each movement setting up the alt-driven euphoria.

The Inevitable Finale

The outcome? An eye-watering surge in altcoins, inevitable, cyclical, and ready for those attuned to the market’s rhythms.

For those currently positioned in alts, feeling the pain of downturns—know that patience will be rewarded.

In a market ruled by greed and expectations of outsized returns, rationality often surrenders to exuberance.

The casino never truly closes; the trick is knowing the opening hours.

Stay vigilant.

Guru.

Guru.Asymmetry
All this FUD will not age very well.

Most participants in this space just chase the next dopamine hit - as soon as something stalls it is "dead".

Remember when gets moving - beta assets will absolutely rip - pepeverse 2025.

Patience.

Guru.Asymmetry


Update after the long weekend.

Getting ready for the move - chart looking great.

We had further liquidity sought from the red region annotated previously and no closes in or below as expected.

Get your seatbelts on - once we breach upwards convincingly, things will begin to get fruity.

I hope you are positioned.

🆙 📈

Alts Gameplan

$OTHERS is my favourite proxy ticker.

Break and hold above the marked blue level and we have a significant structural shift for price - this will likely lead to a quick advance up to the final level before the potential parabolic moves as we approach mid-late summer.

The TRUE parabolic moves generally begin 3-4 months post-halving from previous datasets.

We don't want an acceptance back into the re-accumulation range as marked in red - this would indicate a longer consolidation perhaps taking another few months to resolve.

Add risk above blue/green, cut risk below red.

Simple. -

Guru.Asymmetry


+Trump narrative
+Cat coin meta as a sub-category of the meme-coin supercycle
+ETH ETF backdrop
+PA respected the 1.618 macro fib extension on the market pullback

Gradually encroaching on my two main bull market take profit targets.

$600M market cap currently - potential 5-10x if the fire continues to spread.

Remember hit $85B last cycle...

Things can get crazier than we realise during peak euphoria.

Guru.

Guru.Asymmetry
Alts Gameplan is my favourite proxy ticker.

Break and hold above the marked blue level and we have a significant structural shift for price - this will likely lead to a quick advance up to the final level before the potential parabolic moves as we approach mid-late summer.

The TRUE parabolic moves generally begin 3-4 months post-halving from previous datasets.

We don't want an acceptance back into the re-accumulation range as marked in red - this would indicate a longer consolidation perhaps taking another few months to resolve.

Add risk above blue/green, cut risk below red.

Simple.

CryptoChris.Asymmetry
- This is not the first time the price has pulled back after reaching a new all-time high. One thing that remains constant throughout these cycles is participant psychology. Markets are designed to take advantage of psychological weaknesses

CryptoChris.Asymmetry
- Maybe something like this if we get a repeat of January/Feb. A valid breakout gives a target of $900+. This could be the coin that re-ignites altcoin FOMO

Guru.Asymmetry
GM all!

Lots of data this week - expecting a resolution to the liquidity currently sat on in the TGA (Treasury general account - essentially the government's piggy bank). Potentially around $1.4T of liquidity about to be injected into the markets. This may be especially needed with the recent carnage with the Yen as Japan have been relentlessly selling US treasuries to prop up their currency. If even 5-10% trickles into the crypto markets - its game on again.

Crypto and our beloved alts still slowly bleeding out/consolidating following the Iran/Isreal capitulation.

Long term thoughts remain the same - this is simply a larger bull market pullback/ localised trend shift whilst macro headwinds begin to abate. Nothing out of the ordinary - we have four of these in the 2020 bull and three in the 2017 bull some were deeper, some were longer. They will always test your resolve and patience - this market is not for the feint of heart, there are no free rides here.

I am more of an INVESTOR than a TRADER of these markets. If you're trading, use it solely to stack more or USD to eventually build larger spot INVESTMENT bags for the remaining 12-18 months of the cycle.

In terms of adding fresh capital - this is at your own discretion and based on your own personal circumstances. Please be sensible here. Add on strength ONLY - we could go lower (short term). If adding fresh capital, you want confirmation that a bottom is in before adding.

If you are struggling with the volatility - ask yourself; has anything changed other than price? The underlying investment timing/thesis remains.

Sun is out finally today here in the UK. Go spend time outside, spend time with family and loved ones, focus on work, focus on hobbies etc - the market will always be here. If we consolidate for another few more weeks or even a month - make sure you stay resolute and maintain a high timeframe bias towards this market.

Things will soon be green again.

Some HTF charts for you all for perspective.

Guru.

CryptoChris.Asymmetry
/ - Many traders are unaware that the price has been accumulating for over a year against BTC. Many traders are unaware that a higher timeframe S/R is being tested. Once this S/R level flips, traders will still be unaware of why the USD pair is pumping

CryptoChris.Asymmetry
RT : The Echo Bubble - food for thought

Assuming the macro bullish move originating in 2023 was a giant echo bubble reminiscent of the echo bubble we saw in 2019 - then what comes next?

Ive overlayed price action during the echo-bubble period of 2019 with (my favourite alt performance proxy) to ascertain what timeframes and price deviations we may be looking at in the near future.

On this chart I have marked out the echo-bubble top (red), market bottom (green) and the inorganic price action caused by the initial COVID event/global lockdowns (blue).

COVID price action represented inorganic, emotional driven market movements. This was THE black swan event, and I therefore discount this from my macro analysis. Although this occurred in the charts - to use data or fractals from this period in an attempt to forecast future price action can be misleading.

Observations:

- (and therefore alts) bottomed three months before then recovered far more aggressively once bottomed in December 2019.
Are we seeing something similar playing out now?

- The time from the 2019 echo bubble top in to the market bottom was 177 days. If this is overlayed on live price action, this takes us to the 6th September 2024 before a bottom on and the next leg up. This will almost definitely not take as long as flows are more extreme, alongside exponentially more participants/on-ramps for fiat + the current macroeconomic backdrop.

- There was a 60% decline in the price of alts during this bubble top to bottom period. This decline is more extreme than the 40% pullback we have seen in thus far - however many alts have individually seen 60-70% pullbacks already from their highs. This is simply a symptom of a far more abundant altcoin landscape from 2019 - the market will become less volatile with time as marketcaps grow.

- If we are seeing something similar playing out now - expect a boring summer of price chopping around and killing the more emotionally driven traders in the space, before resuming uponly into Q4 2024.

Please take this analysis with a pinch of salt - it is simply me riffing with charts and historic data. One should not form an investment strategy based on this dubious speculation. I simply provide this in an attempt to keep everyone open-minded about the potential market trajectories moving further into the year.

Guru.